Sent as an email to the Broomfield Oil and Gas Study Team on July 3, 2017
Integrated into a Powerpoint for presentation on July 26:
More Models Please
Request Model (Short Version)
See also SheridanPadCart which models 1 year of fracking.
This email is not about pad count and size (although I do meander there).
It is comparing Extraction's Gantt chart where frac and flowback is indiscriminate
to one where frac and flowback is limited to summer months.
The two studies both peak within a month of each other.
So the study should show the contaminants in our community
where the only difference is the season in which the processes are applied.
Recognizing the highest emissions by far occur in the winter,
the highest sources of emissions are Fracking and Flowback,
with drilling a distant third,
and using Extraction's Gantt chart average times,
I developed a 20 well 2 year schedule:
Drill any 5 months between October and March
Frac mid April to mid September
Cleanout mid September through January
Tube February through April
Flowback May through August
Production start in September
I don't have any emissions numbers on Cleanout and Tube.
I can't believe they are zero, but since they aren't discussed, I assume they are low.
The details and above graphs are in:
Sheets: GanttChart, SummerFrac, and SummerFracTwo
I would like the AERMOD consultant to compare GanttChart and SummerFracTwo?
The grams / second for AERMOD input for all process have been calculated.
But if the consultant has better numbers they can be substituted and used in both studies.
If Extraction submits a Gantt chart for Coyote, will use that rather than my estimation.
The real world is not 20 wells per pad.
To compensate, I created a virtual pad "Mixed" with 9 wells from Lowell and 10 wells from Huron
and split Coyote into two pads.
Extraction's Gantt chart doesn't seem to have any resource restrictions.
That is, he has drilling fracking, cleanout, tubing, and flowback all occurring at different sites simultaneously.
You can see his Gantt chart at:
Powerpoint (page 7)
But, can he come back and drill and frack, an additional 9 wells if 20 of them are in flowback or production?
I think an additional pad could be sited along the northwest parkway corridor,
and the pads could be shuffled to contain 20 wells.
When I see the fracking picture on Extractions presentation,
I shudder to think this heavy industry is being allowed in a residential area.
I personally think 20 wells are too many for residential area and should be made a maximum limit.
I would prefer 79 wells: Lowell 20, Sheridan 19, United 20, Huron 20.
And I would prefer one driller (564 g/s max), not two (724 g/s max), or Gantt (767 g/s max).
I do think Extraction would listen if we could show the schedule changes would not impede his progress (aka profits),
and that the contaminants would be a fraction of those with indiscriminate scheduling.
A number could be put on that fraction with the modeling results.
Would you please ask the AERMOD consultant to model GanttChart and SummerFracTwo?
Thank you, Gerard